Simulation of migration theories – SioMiTe

The project will do research into the use of simulation, and modeling approaches in the search for and subsequent verification of "anthropologic patterns" in the context of migration and the associated military security, and social, environmental, and economic threats. After compiling a general model of migration and security threats, this model will be subsequently tested (and potentially made more precise) for some selected regions of Africa, Asia, and Europe.

The project will be created and managed by a young ambitious team, dedicated to the cause and starting their scientific career under the guidance of three experts.

The issues of migration and terrorism are nowadays two of the most discussed topics in political discourse and in some ways also in the discourse of social science. Although there are many studies dealing with these phenomena, they usually approach them either from a position, which is too general or too theoretical, or, on the contrary, too particular, focusing on a particular time, geographically unique case, or just a limited group of cases. That is why there are several projects having the form of just a single case study applying a purely theoretical approach or only regression analysis. These case studies are based on a large number of mostly considerably geographically or temporally disparate data, and they try to create linear models. These studies fail to capture the complicated interactions between the examined factors. The proposed project aims to deal with the issue of migration and terrorism differently and from two sides - the methodological one and the theoretical one.

We perceive terrorism as one of many manifestations of deeper instability in society, so-called political violence. Terrorism is often used as a mere concept, which allows the governments by all means to combat the groups which could equally be classified as criminals, national liberation movements, or are otherwise economically, politically, and/or religiously motivated. We, therefore, believe that terrorism is only one of many forms of violence that threatens, without exaggeration, each society.

This violence has yet objective causes that can be identified and that are often linked with the migration of the population. That has considerable potential for igniting a conflict - e.g. it carries the risk of a conflict arising between the indigenous and newly arrived population because of material deprivation (a lack of land, wood, water, and money in the social system) or subjectively cultural incompatibility leading to the radicalization of the population. Similarly, migration can be a response to existing instability and violence. The government's response causes an effect similar to acts of violence, usually it makes the situation more extreme. The coherence and interaction of factors leading to violence and responses to it are, in our opinion, essential for the understanding of the internal security of our nations and consequently their ability to flexibly and adequately respond to its threats. As mentioned above, the most commonly used methods of study on this topic still leave a gap occurring in the issues of national security, and we would like to fill the gap by carrying out this project. The principal advantage of our concept is its multidisciplinary character, especially in terms of interconnection between primarily social science topics and theories (security, migration) and modeling approaches, such as system dynamics, agent-based, and numerical modeling. This multidisciplinary approach is rarely and uncommonly applied in this issue.

The aim of the project is, essentially, to create a general pattern of migration and security threats based on standardized "anthropological patterns" of behavior derived from the study of specific cases from different geographical (and cultural) areas. The model is supposed to predict, among other things, which states or regions are most vulnerable to terrorism or other forms of intrastate conflicts, where migration flows are directed, and what practical implications can be expected. Then, this model will be applied to specific countries/regions within Africa and Asia, the locations most often associated with migration and security threats in Europe.

The publication strategy is based on the above-mentioned goal – in the first year, we are going to publish at least one impacted article which will focus on the model designed for this specific area. Two other impacted articles will be published in the second year. These two articles will cover the application and implication of the model in the context of the regions of Africa and Asia. Other articles that will be created during the project period will focus, among other things, on the organization and economy of the post-communist and democratic world at the time of globalization. The main issues will be structural prerequisites how to resist terrorism and hybrid war (resilience); tendencies to participate in a total war without structural assumptions; selected aspects of the company's resilience to terrorism, extremism, and migration in the mirror of globalization (economic changes); the demographically aging society and the onset of the Revolution 4.0.